Random Thoughts

Interesting rumblings already around IBM and XIV. I'm getting a lot of calls from old EMC sales guys asking about them, which means old EMC sales guy Jim Sullivan is going through his yearbook. I worry that unless IBM realizes that they have to aim that play at the net new data world, or the "cloud" housed data of the Internet Computing Era (thank you, came up with that all by myself) then they run the risk of a huge letdown. Going back after competitive strongholds from the previous eras – the Transactional Computing and Distributed Computing eras, is foolish for several reasons. First, presuming the product works perfectly (large presumption), nothing is going to unseat the incumbent in a mature market. EMC will continue to dominate the storage end of core transactional-based infrastructure, IBM and HDS will continue to fight the good fight and make darn good livings doing so. That play is over. There continues to be turmoil in the distributed computing world – at least when it comes to block storage – so I have no issue with attacking that space – especially in lieu of what EqualLogic was able to pull off. The big and most obvious play, however, is in the new world order of digitalia. 90% of all corporate data is file-based already, and it will become 98% within 5-7 years. The file data today (which exists mostly in the distributed world) is changing – more files and bigger files. In the Internet computing era these files are not created only by employees doing PowerPoint – they are created at every far reaching part of the universe by all our customers, users, partners, and everyone else. That content is the opportunity.

In the next 3 years there will be 500% more overall data zooming around our worlds – and I just mean data that touches the corporate world one way or another. That sure seems like a better market to attack than a well defended one growing at microscopically small rates comparatively. Sure, the dollar spend remains (and will remain) huge in the core, but the folks who really play in the new era are the ones who will win – and this market is completely wide open.

Media companies were a small niche a few years ago. Now every company is becoming a media company from a content store perspective. That sure seems to bode well for lesser known folks from that world – like Omneon or Isilon, or bulk persistent store guys like Copan, which leads to "how the hell do I ever find anything" issues which is good for the Kazeons of the world. The only ones who this wave isn't good for are the traditionalists who refuse to change. Even EMC has to see the realities of the scale-out world – look at VMware. Infrastructure fluidity, automation and commoditization have to happen.

I may even get to stop yelling at people to stop doing full backups every week on non-changing data (which is 80 %+) just because that's how they used to do it. They won't have a choice. You can't back up 5X your current data the way you do (or don't) today.

The "cloud" gets more and more interesting – which means the service provider play is getting more and more valuable. Half the digital content created is going to be in the cloud sooner or later, and probably sooner.

Speaking of EMC, they caused a Web 2.0 firestorm with new Mozy pricing. Somebody told somebody else something and all hell broke loose. There are a zillion posts so I'm not going to link to them, as all you have to do is type Mozy and you'll find them. Here's what I know, I just can't figure out why it's bad;

1. EMC currently sells "Mozy Pro" for $3.95 per machine/month (client or server) and $.50 per GB/month.
2. I knew they were going to create a new offering (not sure when) splitting up Client and Server.
3. Pro client will stay the same.
4. Pro Server will now be $6.95/mo. For the license and $1.75/GB/month for capacity. That's why folks freaked out.

Things to note in your frenzy;

1. Far as I can tell you can still call your server a client if you want and do things the same way. What won't work is that they closed the door on backing up a share via a client.
2. They grandfathered existing customers, so they won't see any change. For how long, I'm not sure.
3. None of this matters.

The poor minister in Indiana who runs 1 server (no clients that I can tell) with 500GB will absolutely have to pay more, if he weren't grandfathered. If he doesn't back up network shares, he can use the Pro Client and nothing would change anyway. If he does back up shares, he's out of luck.

Having said that, if I do the math I still am not getting the issue. My goofy little company has 2 servers and 30 clients. Everyone charges by usable capacity backed up, so lets say each server has 200GB and each client has 15GB.

That means my monthly cost would be 2 x $6.95 plus $1.75 x 400GB = $713.90 for the servers and $3.95 x 30 plus $.50 x 450GB = $462. Total cost is $1176/month

If I do the math on Symantec's offering based just on total GBs at $4.30GB (which is wrong, but that's the one off price I can find) that puts them at $3655/month. If they cut the cost in half, it's still $1827/month. (Someone from Symantec should chime in here with real numbers).

If I do the math with Connected and consider everything a client (I was having trouble figuring out the LiveVault server cost while doing this so I'll just use the client pricing) then I would have 32 machines and 850GB. It seems the cost is $12.50/machine/month plus $1.46GB – which = $1641/month. (By all means lets have a Connected person give me some better math!)

That still makes Mozy cheaper far as I can tell. If you have a higher client to server ratio the delta gets bigger, though I suppose the inverse would also be true – but I didn't use higher server prices for Symantec or Iron Mountain.

Speaking of Iron Mountain, congratulations to my pal Bob Brennan, former chief of Connected, for being named CEO of the Mountain. Richard Reese is stepping aside in June thus creating equilibrium in the world, as Richard is one of those really tall people and Bob is not.

I'm on my way to Amsterdam for a few days where my theories seem far more appreciated for some reason, and "right on" is an acceptable response. Come on by and see me if you are in the neighborhood – I'll be at IS-IT's Vision and Focus event. Look for me through the smoke……

Comments

[Martin Jansen]

I was at the IS-IT's Vision and Focus event. And I enjoyed your keynote very much. Made me remember what my purpose is in this business is. I guess I was caught up in all the political hassle you have at big companies (in Netherlands anyway). Things that hit me most are.

1) I completely forgot the purpose of ICT (namely to save money or make help you make more money on same resources)
2) I wasn't thinking as much out of the box as i thought I was.
3) As a IT professional I am able to downscale my answers to normal users so they understand what I explain to them, but I lack the understanding to look at the bigger picture (as from outer space).
But your keynote helped me there, making me think.

Hope to see/meet you again someday I found you very inspiring

With kind regards,

Martin Jansen